By Donald R. Hopkins and P. Craig Withers, Jr.
The recent efforts by the new U.S. administration and some European countries to help negotiate an end to the Sudanese conflict provide a basis for hope that the war in Sudan may be ended soon. In our opinion, at this stage of the SGWEP, temporary cease-fires or days of tranquility are only useful to the extent that they are confidence-building steps toward the main goal, which is ending the war altogether.
For all the SGWEP's successes so far, dracunculiasis cannot be eradicated from Sudan until Sudan's civil war is ended. (With an incubation period of two weeks or less, and a vaccine, it may be possible to eradicate polio from Sudan before the war ends, but it will be hard to prove it. Smallpox was eradicated during Sudan's brief decade of peace.) We estimate that it will take 3-5 years to completely eradicate dracunculiasis in Sudan once the war is settled. Until then, the actual and potential costs to Sudan, its neighbors, and supporters of the eradication campaign will be substantial. They include the costs (now about US$2 million per year) to maintain the program in Sudan; costs of maintaining surveillance to detect cases exported from southern Sudan to northern Sudan and to neighboring countries; costs if an undetected case re-establishes transmission in Ethiopia, for example; and the costs of maintaining WHO's International Commission for the Certification of Dracunculiasis Eradication for the additional years.
The need to address this public health problem is being used as a diplomatic tool in Sudan, and diplomacy is urgently needed to facilitate public health work in that war-torn country.
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