Conflict Resolution Program — Trip Updates

Middle East
July-August 2012
Conflict Resolution Program Director Hrair Balian and Assistant Director Nathan Stock traveled to Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza July 23-30. They were joined in Lebanon by Assistant Program Coordinator Rana Shabb from July 31-Aug. 4. By some estimates, the accelerated pace of settlement expansion in the West Bank and East Jerusalem has brought the number of Israeli settlers in the Occupied Palestinian Territory to 650,000. The peace process is on hold, the West Bank economy is in danger of collapse, and Gaza remains politically divided from the West Bank. In these circumstances, the conviction that the two-state solution is already impossible is gaining prevalence among political stakeholders.

While the ruling regime has suffered major setbacks in recent weeks, the endgame in Syria remains unclear, and concerted international effort could still enable a political transition. The conflict there is having spillover effects in Lebanon. Lebanese political leaders are intently watching and constantly reassessing the fragile internal sectarian balance of power. The developments in Syria are emboldening the March 14 alliance, specifically the Sunni community, including Salafis, and worrying the March 8 coalition, particularly the Shia parties. Despite these centrifugal tensions, the major parties still profess to have no interest in disturbing the precarious stability through violence, at least not until the outcome in Syria is clearer.

Middle East
May 2012
Conflict Resolution Assistant Director Nathan Stock traveled to Cairo from May 20-26, 2012, to support President Carter in meetings related to Palestinian and Syrian issues. Please see here for President Carter's trip report.

Middle East
April 2012
From April 9-20, 2012, Conflict Resolution Program Director Hrair Balian and Assistant Director Nathan Stock visited Syria, Egypt, Gaza, and Israel. The Damascus, Syria, leg focused on better understanding the deteriorating situation in the country and the status of the Kofi Annan mission. In Cairo and Gaza, discussions highlighted the impasse in Palestinian reconciliation.

Middle East
January 2012
Conflict Resolution Program Assistant Director Nathan Stock traveled to the West Bank and Gaza to assess progress on aspects of Palestinian reconciliation; to explore the Palestinians' next steps after the collapse of talks with Israel in Amman, Jordan; and to attend a conference on community reconciliation in Gaza, which marked a key milestone in the implementation of our UNDP-funded Initiative on Dialogue, Consensus-Building, and Civic Awareness (IDCC). Interlocutors agreed that Palestinian President Abbas is open to means of asserting Palestinian sovereignty at the United Nations and reconciliation with his Hamas rivals. However, he is facing enormous U.S. pressure to remain in some form of negotiations with Israel and an unprecedented financial crisis in the Palestinian Authority. These and other countervailing pressures will continue to dictate the pace and strength of his moves. Progress on reconciliation has been slowed by the same constraints that have impaired Abbas' ability to move decisively at the United Nations, as well as by vested interests within the leading Palestinian factions. Interlocutors expressed concern that elections, called for in the reconciliation agreement, will not be held on May 4, 2012, and might be delayed until late summer. While the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC) reopened in Gaza, the Hamas authorities are not allowing it to begin voter registration or any of the other administrative steps necessary to prepare for elections.  If and when a green light is granted, CEC staff in Gaza would need to register a further 220,000 eligible voters.

Middle East
December 2011
From Nov. 29 – Dec. 16, 2011, Conflict Resolution Program Director Hrair Balian and Assistant Director Nathan Stock visited Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Israel, and the West Bank. Senior Adviser to President Carter Robert Pastor joined them in Syria and accompanied them to Israel and Palestine. Discussions with Syrian civil society activists, independents, and opposition figures demonstrated concerns about the prospect of foreign military intervention in Syria. Many felt it would cause a protracted, violent escalation of the conflict. Others opined that the regime has no interest in real dialogue or reform, and that a military solution is the only option. For their part, Syrian officials argued that Salafists and Jihadists are behind the violence, and they noted that they have enacted reforms. In Palestine, interlocutors expressed greater optimism regarding the intra-Palestinian reconciliation process after Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal met for the first time since the signing of the May 2011 reconciliation agreement. However, significant obstacles to reconciliation remain, particularly opposition from Israel and the United States.

Middle East
September 2011
Conflict Resolution Program Director Hrair Balian and Assistant Director Nathan Stock visited Lebanon, the West Bank, and Egypt from Sept. 5-16, 2011. Discussions with interlocutors in Lebanon suggested that the violence in Syria will continue for the foreseeable future, and that prospects for a managed transition to democracy are slim. Some interlocutors were concerned that this is fueling resentment among the Sunni majority and could transform the current rebellion into a sectarian conflict. The sanctions are crippling the Syrian business community, which is heavily reliant on imports and exports. Regarding the Palestinian initiative in September, Palestine Liberation Organization leaders are moving ahead with their U.N. bid while trying to garner as much international support as possible. On reconciliation, confidence-building measures are continuing between Fatah and Hamas, but implementation of the core political aspects of the reconciliation agreement, particularly the formation of a new technocratic Palestinian Authority government is on hold, pending the PLO's U.N. move.

Middle East
July 2011
Conflict Resolution Program Director Hrair Balian and Assistant Director Nathan Stock visited Cairo, Damascus, Jerusalem, Ramallah, Gaza, and Tel Aviv from July 5-15, 2011, to follow up on the implementation of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement and the Palestinian demarche at the United Nations in September. Palestinian reconciliation is on hold, due to disagreements over the prime minister in a new technocratic government. The formation of the committees, called for under the reconciliation agreement to reform the security services and the Palestine Liberation Organization, has been postponed, pending the formation of the technocratic government. Regarding the move at the United Nations in September, it is unclear to what degree September will constitute a turning point, a definitive break from the fruitless negotiations of the past, versus a one-off event. Hamas is skeptical of any U.N. action and is waiting to see the outcome.

Middle East
June 2011
Conflict Resolution Assistant Director Nathan Stock traveled to the West Bank and Gaza from June 9-15, 2011, and was joined by other peace programs staff. For the vast majority of Palestinians, reconciliation has thus far been almost meaningless. Frustration with reconciliation and general cynicism are at a high. After four years, the reconciliation agreement is a significant step, but there appears to be little spirit of reconciliation on the ground. Instead, the agreement has been described as a mostly symbolic effort to manage the expectations of a restless Palestinian street and the status quo until national elections can take place. Likewise, there is no expectation of the reintegration of the security forces until next year. Additionally, the promised easing of the Rafah crossing with Egypt, a major reconciliation dividend for the people of Gaza, in practice has not changed much.

The PLO Executive Committee is considering a two-track strategy at the United Nations in September.  They may seek a supportive General Assembly resolution, while beginning the process of seeking U.N. membership, which can only come via a positive recommendation from the Security Council. There is a rising expectation on the street that something major and positive may happen in September, but it will be difficult for PLO leaders to meet public expectations for change in the short term.

Middle East
May 2011
Conflict Resolution Director Hrair Balian and Assistant Director Nathan Stock visited Egypt, Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, and Syria from April 25-May 13, 2011. On April 27, Hamas signed the October 2009 Cairo Accord (which Fatah had already signed at the time), agreeing to a roadmap for reunifying the Palestinian leadership. In addition, Fatah and Hamas initialed a binding annex, the "Cairo Understandings," which adds language addressing both sides' reservations. Key points of the final agreement include: presidential, Palestinian Legislative Council, and National Council (the PLO parliament) elections will be held in May 2012; an interim government of technocrats will be agreed by consensus and will govern a unified Palestinian Authority until the elections; and the Palestinian security sector will be reformed. On May 4, Hrair Balian and Nathan Stock attended the signing ceremony.

Implementation will be challenging. Though the agreement is relatively broad in scope, many critical details have yet to be worked out. The most challenging issues will prove to be: the status of the security forces in the West Bank, political prisoners, the status of civil servants, and the reaction of outside powers and the international community. However, if successful, this agreement will lead to the recreation of unified, democratically-legitimate leadership for Palestinians in and outside of the Occupied Palestinian Territory, through a revitalized Palestine Liberation Organization. This should provide the Palestinians a platform for setting and implementing sorely-needed national strategy, while strengthening their negotiating position vis-à-vis Israel.

In Egypt, there are two points of concern. One is the rise in tension between Muslims and Christians, including several recent bouts of serious inter-communal violence. The civil police remain widely discredited and have yet to return to their posts in much of the country. The other immediate challenge is economic.  Tourism is still far below normal levels, and intermittent strikes continue among a variety of public and private sector workers. In Syria, the capital remains calm. While the government seems confident that they will succeed in putting down the current uprising, however this will in not address fundamental concerns regarding corruption, lack of economic opportunity, and political participation.

Middle East
March 2011
Conflict Resolution Program Director Hrair Balian and Assistant Director Nathan Stock visited Jerusalem and Ramallah from Feb. 28-March 4, 2011. The revolutions and unrest in the Arab world have impacted the Palestinian political scene. While the leadership of Fatah and Hamas seem further entrenched in their positions, a movement organizing through social media has called for mass protests on March 15 in the West Bank and Gaza, demanding an end to the intra-Palestinian division and an end to the occupation. Politically unaffiliated youth are spearheading the campaign, and younger Fatah leaders and other activists are following the campaign with anticipation. The Fatah and Hamas leaderships remain divided on reconciliation and the impact of the changes in Egypt. The Fatah leadership is concerned about the loss of their principal supporter in the Arab world, President Mubarak, and is seeking assurances from the Egyptian military. Intra-Palestinian reconciliation, or an agreement to enable presidential and PLC elections, remains the cornerstone for any Palestinian initiative to end the occupation through negotiations or unilateral action. However, until the dust settles in Egypt and the impact of the changes in Egypt on Palestinian politics become known, both sides will bide their time.

Middle East
February 2011
Vice President for Peace Programs John Stremlau, Conflict Resolution Director Hrair Balian, and Assistant Director Nathan Stock visited Cairo for a political assessment mission from Feb. 22-28, 2011. Based on discussions with interlocutors, there are no imminent external or internal threats to the gains Egypt has secured thus far.  The Egyptian army takes pride in being a national institution, with primary loyalty to the Egyptian people, not to a particular political party. They represent powerful, potentially decisive interests and they will play a central role in the future of Egypt. Relations between the army and the insurgent forces continue to evolve. The Jan. 25 uprising lacks leadership but not legitimacy.  The youth have tapped into a broad and deep reservoir of popular resentment and humiliation over political conditions in Egypt and the countries role in the region and the world. The views of rural Egyptians, the so-called 'silent majority,' are, however, untested. They may prefer known candidates from the old NDP in new party labels, or follow religious advice and vote for the Muslim Brotherhood, especially if there is too little time and too few resources to allow newer more democratic forces to coalesce into viable political parties.

Middle East
January 2011
Conflict Resolution Program Assistant Director Nathan Stock and Senior Adviser to President Carter Robert Pastor traveled to Syria, Israel, and the West Bank from Jan. 19- 29, 2011.  The mood in the region was one of despair with the peace process, discouragement with the lack of U.S. leadership, anxiety over the government crisis in Lebanon, and excitement about events in Tunisia and Egypt. The "Palestine Papers," broadcast by Al-Jazeera, had an immediate impact on the credibility of the Palestine Authority. But, within days, Al-Jazeera was compelled to defend itself, and the PA looked as if it would survive the storm, though it has been injured by an Arab press, which emphasized its concessions. Negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians are at a standstill. Prime Minister Netanyahu argues that he is prepared to negotiate directly with President Abbas, but the latter insists that settlement expansion should stop first. In addition to continuing institution building, the Palestinians have embarked on an international strategy to gain support for a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the settlements and to gain bilateral diplomatic recognitions of an independent state. With regard to intra-Palestinian reconciliation, Fatah and Hamas met in late-September 2010 and both sides agreed on bridging proposals regarding the composition of the Central Election Commission, changes to the Electoral Court, and reform of the PLO, but they saved the hardest issue – security – for a meeting in early November. In their next meeting, the two sides un-did agreements reached in September and made no progress on security. In Syria, interlocutors said that the United States is blaming them for the rise of Hezbollah in Lebanon, though Syria is more an observer than a key actor – much like the United States. The United States sees the Special Tribunal for Lebanon as the way to end impunity in Lebanon and bring the assassins to justice. Hezbollah and Syria believe the STL was manipulated by the United States and Israel against them, and they fear that a decision which threatens Hezbollah could lead to a new round of violence.